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A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Broader Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."