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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position and Closed Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue pro-Leave voters in target constituencies, despite polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut for five years is starting to loosen once more.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass long-standing interior ministry opposition to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.

While the Europe minister, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of talks immediately for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that rejoining an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult because his ministers busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Strategy & Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

But, far from deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by endangering fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Succession Chatter & The Echo of 2018

This situation returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on the Prime Minister's office note that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.